Rates and home purchases headed up in 2022?

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November 2021

Unsurprisingly, the market experts are predicting that mortgage rates will go up more soon.

In this article, Michael Fratantoni, chief economist at the MBA, says:

“The economy and labor market rebounded in 2021, but overall growth fell short of expectations because of stubborn supply chain issues that fueled faster inflation, slowed consumer spending, and presented challenges in filling the record number of job openings available. With inflation elevated and the unemployment rate dropping fast, the Federal Reserve will begin to taper its asset purchases by the end of this year and will raise short-term rates by the end of 2022.”

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan will rise to 4%, a full percentage point higher than it is now, MBA economists say.

That will result in a 62% drop in refinance originations to just $860 billion. It deepens the anticipated 14% decline in 2021 to $2.26 trillion

Originations for the purpose of buying a home, however, are forecast to rise 9% to a record of $1.73 trillion in 2022.

There are a couple of important points in this overview:

1) While my business has enjoyed the extra volume of refinances because of the incredibly low rates, having that decrease a lot will give me more time to focus on developing work that also benefits you – home purchase business.

2) According to this forecast, home purchases – which were already running hot – are likely to increase even more in 2022.

To me, this represents a strategic opportunity for us to reconnect with clients and be sure that they know us to be their go-to resources for professional advice and assistance as they consider their next moves.

Shall we schedule time to think ahead and plan how we can work together best in the coming year? I know that a little bit of focus on nurturing our “raving fans” can yield big results!

Please drop me an email or call if you have any questions – or someone you know is in need of expert advice. I love to help those you care about. If you have a referral please click the button down below. Your referrals are the heart and lifeblood of my business.



Omar Khamisa
Mission San Jose Mortgage
2111 W. March Lane, Suite B100
Stockton, CA 95207
Office: 209-651-2000
Mobile: 510-648-5535
Fax: 209-434-2311
NMLS: 369325


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